Key EU Nations Are Experiencing Reduced Credit Quality & Expecting Growing Deficits
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European corporate credit quality is sinking at what Moodys terms an "alarming" rate. Causes include rising oil prices and possible  recession in the US. Also, the euro's strength will continue to restrain EU economic growth.
Moody's Investors' Service assigned 32 negative outlooks to European companies during the 2008 first quarter. That is nearly triple the 11 positive assignments. This gap is the largest since 2001. It indicates deteriorating credit quality within 12 to 18 months.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that economic growth in the 15-nation euro region will slow to 1.4% during 2008 from 2.6% in 2007.
The European Commission has forecast a deteriorating outlook for public finances in the Euro Zone. It expects conditions in France to worsen disproportionately larger.
The European Commission expects a deficit for the bloc of 1.0% of GDP this year. It had predicted 0.9% in its forecast published November 9, 2007.
The euro zone is forecast to post a 2009 deficit equal to 1.1%  of GDP. That compares to the previous forecast of 0.8%.
Germany's deficit is now projected to be 0.5% of GDP for 2008 instead of 0.1%. For 2009, its deficit is projected to be 0.2%, changed from a surplus of 0.2%.
France's 2008 deficit forecast is increased to 2.9% of GDP from 2.6%. Its 2009 outlook was raised to the stability and growth pact's threshold of 3.0% from 2.7%.
Italy's projected deficit is unchanged at 2.3% of GDP for 2008. For 2009, it is increased 2.4% from 2.3%.
Outside the euro zone, the UK's deficit forecast is increased to 3.3% of GDP for 2008. It had been projected to be 3.0%. For 2009, it is increased to 3.3% from 2.8%.